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Deficit on track for $2.1T as tariff refunds outrun collections

Tariff refunds paid in July exceeded collections, pushing the federal deficit $200 billion above forecasts from six months ago.

Published Aug 12, 2026, 4:22 PM EDT | WFMZZ

In July the federal government paid out more in tariff refunds than it collected, a reversal that has increased the budget shortfall. That development has driven this fiscal year’s deficit about $200 billion higher than forecasters projected six months ago, leaving the deficit on track for roughly $2.1 trillion.