NFIB: Pennsylvania small-business optimism falls in March
NFIB survey finds optimism down amid rising costs and an oil-price spike, while uncertainty climbs well above historical norms for Pennsylvania small businesses.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3 points in March to 95.8.
That leaves the index below its 52-year average of 98.
The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.
NFIB Pennsylvania State Director Greg Moreland commented on the drop.
“Small businesses throughout Pennsylvania are absorbing higher costs caused by the dramatic spike in oil prices,” Moreland said. Small employers are less optimistic about expecting better business conditions, and Pennsylvania small businesses in particular are worried about additional costly proposals coming out of the General Assembly.”
Moreland said the frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points from February to a net negative 25% contributed most to the Optimism Index’s decline.
The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points from February to a net 11%, the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. Moreland said that was the second biggest contributor to the Index’s decline.
The Employment Index fell in March from 103.5 to 101.6. While the 1.9-point decline is a meaningful turn in labor market conditions, the current reading remains above both the 2025 average of 101.2 and the historical average of 100.
Sixteen percent of small business owners said they plan to make capital outlays in the next six months. That’s down 2 points from February and the lowest level since November 2009.
A seasonally adjusted net negative 5% of all owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down 6 points from February.
The decline ended a string of four consecutive months of improvement.
In March, 62% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions affected their business to some extent, up 3 points from February.
Three percent reported a significant impact (down 2 points), 17% reported a moderate impact (up 3 points), 42% reported a mild impact (up 2 points), and 36% reported no impact (down 3 points).
Actual price increases picked up in March following three consecutive months of decline. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 1 point from February to a net 25% (seasonally adjusted), well above its historical average.
In contrast to actual prices, planned prices declined in March, falling 4 points to a net 24%. This was the lowest level since July 2024.
Looking ahead, 12% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, unchanged from February and close to the average of a net 11%.
Twenty-two percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions (down 3 points), and 23% reported none (up 2 points).